How to Spot the Likely 2025 Tony Award Nominations

The Tony Awards are Broadway’s biggest night, celebrating the best of live theatre. For theatre enthusiasts and, particularly, those who enjoy wagering on the outcomes, predicting the nominations can be a thrilling – and potentially rewarding – endeavor. While the official nominations won’t be announced until May 1, 2025, and the ceremony is on June 8, 2025, astute observers can start identifying likely contenders now. This guide will provide insights into the factors that influence Tony nominations, helping you make informed predictions for the 2025 awards.

The Eligibility Period and the Rules

The first step in predicting Tony nominations is understanding the eligibility window. For the 2025 Tony Awards, eligible productions must have officially opened between April 26, 2024, and April 27, 2025. This means shows that opened after the 2024 cutoff are in contention for the 2025 awards.

It’s also crucial to understand the Tony Awards’ rules. A show must open in an eligible Broadway theatre (generally, a theatre with 500+ seats, with the Helen Hayes Theatre being the only exception). The Tony Awards Administration Committee determines a show’s eligibility, including whether a play or musical is considered “new” or a “revival.” A “classic” is ineligible for Best Play or Best Musical but can be eligible in the Best Revival categories. Productions transferred from Off-Broadway or the West End can be considered “new.”

Key Categories to Watch

The Tony Awards recognize excellence in various categories. For betting purposes, some of the most popular categories to focus on include:

• Best Play:This award honors new, non-musical plays.
• Best Musical:This award recognizes new musicals.
• Best Revival of a Play:This award is for productions of plays that are considered “classics” or part of the established repertoire.
• Best Revival of a Musical:Similar to Best Revival of a Play, but for musicals.
• Performance Categories:These include Best Leading Actor/Actress in a Play/Musical and Best Featured Actor/Actress in a Play/Musical.
• Technical Categories: Such as Best Direction, Best Choreography, Best Scenic Design, Best Costume Design, Best Lighting Design, and Best Sound Design.

Analyzing the 2024-2025 Broadway Season

A good starting point is to examine the shows that have already opened or are scheduled to open during the eligibility period. Some shows that are generating early buzz or have confirmed opening dates include:

• Plays:Purpose, The Picture of Dorian Gray, Glengarry Glen Ross, Good Night, and Good Luck, Oh, Mary!, The Hills of California, English, Job, and John Proctor is the Villain.
• Musicals:Operation Mincemeat, Buena Vista Social Club, BOOP! The Musical, Smash, Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends, Floyd Collins, Just In Time, Real Women Have Curves, Dead Outlaw, Maybe Happy Ending, Death Becomes Her, and Redwood.
• Revivals:Othello, Glengarry Glen Ross, and potentially others, depending on the Tony Administration Committee’s rulings.

Factors Influencing Nominations

Several factors can increase a show’s or individual’s likelihood of receiving a Tony nomination:

• Critical Reception:Reviews from major publications significantly impact a show’s chances. Positive reviews, especially from influential critics, often translate to Tony buzz.
• Audience Response:Strong audience reception, reflected in box office sales and word-of-mouth, can also play a role. Sold-out runs and enthusiastic audience reactions can indicate a show’s popularity and potential for awards recognition.
• Star Power:The presence of well-known actors, directors, or creative team members can attract attention and increase a production’s visibility. Denzel Washington and Jake Gyllenhaal starring in Othello, for example, immediately makes it a contender.
• Originality and Innovation:The Tonys often reward shows that push boundaries, offer fresh perspectives, or tackle timely themes. A Strange Loop, the 2022 Best Musical winner, exemplifies this trend, with its focus on Blackness and queerness.
• West End Success:Shows that have achieved critical and commercial success in London’s West End often have a strong track record of garnering Tony nominations when they transfer to Broadway. Operation Mincemeat, an Olivier Award-winning musical, is a prime example for the 2025 season.
• Creative Team Pedigree:Shows with acclaimed directors, choreographers, composers, and lyricists are more likely to be considered. For example, a new musical with music by a celebrated composer or direction by a Tony winner will automatically generate buzz.
• Topical Relevance:Shows that address current social or political issues, or that resonate with contemporary audiences, may have an edge.

Spotting Potential Nominees

Best Play:

• Purpose: A new play by Branden Jacobs-Jenkins, directed by Phylicia Rashad, is likely to be a strong contender.
• Othello: With Denzel Washington and Jake Gyllenhaal, this production is almost guaranteed nominations.
• Glengarry Glen Ross: A revival of David Mamet’s classic, featuring a star-studded cast, is also a likely nominee.
• The Picture of Dorian Gray: Starring Sarah Snook in multiple roles.

Best Musical:

• Operation Mincemeat: The Olivier Award-winning musical has a strong chance of securing a nomination.
• Buena Vista Social Club: Based on the legendary album, this musical could resonate with voters.
• Maybe Happy Ending: This is a likely contender for Best Musical.
• Death Becomes Her: Also, a likely contender for Best Musical.
• Dead Outlaw: Based on the creative team of The Band’s Visit, it may be nominated.
• Smash: Based on the TV series, this musical could attract attention.

Performance Categories:

• Leading Actor in a Play:Denzel Washington (Othello) and Jake Gyllenhaal (Othello) are strong contenders. Cole Escola (Oh, Mary!) and George Clooney (Good Night and Good Luck) are also potential nominees.
• Leading Actress in a Play:Sarah Snook (The Picture of Dorian Gray) is a likely nominee.
• Leading Actor in a Musical:Jonathan Groff (Just in Time) and Tom Francis (Sunset Boulevard) are strong early contenders. Darren Criss (Maybe Happy Ending) and Jeremy Jordan (Floyd Collins) are also possibilities.
• Leading Actress in a Musical:This category is more open, but performers in new musicals like Redwood, BOOP!, and Smash will be ones to watch.

Predicting Tony nominations is not an exact science, but by considering the factors outlined above, you can significantly improve your chances of identifying likely contenders. Keep a close eye on reviews, box office performance, and industry buzz. Remember that surprises are always possible, and that’s part of the excitement of the Tony Awards. By combining your knowledge of theatre with careful analysis, you can make informed predictions and potentially enjoy a successful – and entertaining – Tony Awards betting season. Good luck!