How to Bet on Streaming Content Awards: Predicting the Winners

Streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime have disrupted the entertainment industry, producing high-quality original content that competes with traditional television and film. This has opened up new opportunities for viewers to bet on which streaming shows and movies will win major awards such as Emmys and Oscars. With the right strategy, you can make accurate predictions and win money betting on streaming content awards.

Consider the Nominees and Competition

The first step is examining the list of nominees in each category. Look at which streaming shows and movies are up against more traditional television and theatrical releases. For example, at the 2020 Emmys, Netflix shows like Stranger Things, Ozark, and The Crown were nominated in major categories against HBO shows like Succession and Watchmen. This immediately gave Netflix the edge since they had more nominees.

Research the reviews, ratings and buzz around each nominee. Streaming originals with strong critical reception and fan enthusiasm like The Mandalorian or Fleabag have a good chance against prestige HBO or cable dramas. Track which nominees are most talked about online and with awards pundits to gauge the frontrunners.

Evaluate Past Trends

Look at recent awards show history to identify any trends in voting patterns. Has a certain streaming service like Netflix been dominating certain categories recently? Are Emmy voters more inclined to favor fresh streaming series over stalwarts on cable and network TV?

For example, in 2020, Netflix broke HBO’s 17-year streak of most Emmy nominations, indicating the streamer’s growing awards clout. Amazon has recently found awards success for Drama series, Mr & Mrs Smith and also in the Limited or Anthology Series for Fargo, meaning their next nominees may fare best there too. Examining these trends can indicate which streaming nominees have a better shot at their categories.

Follow Expert Predictions

Keep up with predictions from major awards pundits, bloggers and critics. Though their guesses aren’t foolproof, experts like Variety’s Clayton Davis and IndieWire’s Anne Thompson often have inside industry intel on voting and how certain contenders are being received. If they’re overwhelmingly predicting a streaming show like The Queen’s Gambit to win Best Limited Series, that’s a strong indicator to bet in its favor. The Queen’s Gambit later went on to win 11 Primetime Emmy Awards, beating many string contenders, including Mare of Eastown and WandaVision.

However, also look for any underdog nominees they suggest could potentially upset the favorites. Dark horse streaming candidates can sometimes prevail due to late-breaking momentum or newly available information, so don’t rule out those possibilities either.

Factor in Precursor Awards

Most awards groups have smaller precursor ceremonies in the preceding months that offer clues, such as the Golden Globes for the Oscars and the guild awards for the Emmys. Though their nomination fields differ from the major awards, look for any streaming titles that consistently win or get nominated across precursors in their categories.

For example, if an Amazon movie like Sound of Metal wins key critics group and guild awards for Best Picture prior to the Oscars, it likely becomes a frontrunner for the Academy Award as well. The precursors set a roadmap that you can follow to gauge streaming content’s chances at the big show.

Consider Bets Beyond Just “Wins”

Don’t limit your bets to just predicting award winners. Look for opportunities to wager on streaming nominees in other ways, such as:

• Betting on over/unders for the number of nominations certain streaming services will receive.
• Betting on how many total awards a service like Netflix will win across all categories.
• Betting on a streaming title to win its category with increasingly high odds each time its nominated at a precursor.

Expanding your betting horizons beyond simply “Who will win?” opens up more possibilities to successfully wager on streaming content awards.

Leverage Streaming Services for Research

Don’t forget to utilize the streaming platforms themselves when handicapping awards. Streaming services often have special sections promoting their nominated fare. Browse these sections for any “For Your Consideration” materials like highlight reels, cast interviews and behind-the-scenes footage aimed at attracting voter support. See what aspects of their shows and movies the streamers themselves are pushing as award worthy.

The platforms also arrange trivia challenges, social media contests and other interactive content around their nominees. Participating in these can further boost your knowledge on a streamer’s offerings and assess which ones have the best shot at victory.

Use Social Media to Hone Predictions

Here are some tips for using social media to help predict streaming content award winners:

• Track hashtags – Follow hashtags like #Oscars, #Emmys, #GoldenGlobes to see which titles are generating the most buzz on X and Instagram leading up to awards shows. Trending nominees have engaged fans who can influence voting.
• Gauge reactions – Look at how social media reacts to awards show nominations and precursor wins. A streaming movie that gets ecstatic reactions on X and Facebook for nabbing a SAG ensemble nomination could gain momentum with Academy voters too.
• Monitor influencers– Follow critics, journalists and industry figures who have large follower counts. Note which streaming nominees they are predicting to win or advocating for with followers. Their opinions can sway consensus.
• Check stats – Streaming services will often post stats on social media about viewership or popularity of nominated content. Big viewing numbers get promoted to showcase a title’s dominance.

The best social media metric to predict success is passion. Nominees that stoke enthusiastic conversation and engagement among viewers tend to have a leg up when it comes to final voting.

Make Award Predictions Part of Your Viewing

As you watch ongoing and new releases on streaming platforms, get in the habit of sizing them up as potential awards contenders. Look for standout elements like stellar acting, directing, cultural importance and overall craftsmanship. Shows and movies that inspire early Oscar buzz like Roma or The Queen’s Gambit have identifiable markers even months before nominations. Train your eye to spot streaming content with awards DNA as you view.

The rise of streaming has opened an exciting new avenue for awards betting. By studying trends, listening to experts and leveraging the streamers themselves, you can make informed predictions on which shows and movies will prevail with voters. Awards season is an entertainment marathon, but smart bets on streaming content can help you come out on top.