How to Bet on Music Licensing: Predicting Songs in Commercials

Music licensing is big business, with companies paying large sums to use popular songs in their commercials, TV shows, films and more. Songs that gained widespread recognition after being featured in ads include Spaceman by Babylon Zoo (a Levis jeans commercial) and Pink Moon by Nick Drake (Volkswagen). Classic songs like I Heard it Through the Grapevine by Marvin Gaye and Like a Rock by Bob Seger also did wonders for Sun Maid/the California Raisin Advisory Board and Chevrolet respectively.

Paying attention to music licensing has created opportunities for speculation and betting on which songs will be used in upcoming ad campaigns or other commercial projects. Here’s a guide on how to make informed bets on music licensing.

Look at Brand Campaign Themes

The first step is to analyze any information available about an upcoming ad campaign or commercial project. Major brands often have an overarching theme or slogan that provides clues on what kind of music they might license. For example, an upbeat, youthful campaign might necessitate licensing a current pop song, while a more nostalgic campaign could use an older classic rock or Motown tune.

Follow Ad Agency Trends

Pay attention to the ad agencies and music supervisors attached to commercial projects. They often have go-to styles or favorite genres they like to use. A company known for licensing lots of indie rock songs is more likely to stick to that genre, while a company with a track record of retro hits may continue mining older tunes. Knowing the musical preferences of ad creatives working on campaigns can help pinpoint possibilities.

Research Music Charts and Trends

Stay up to date on current music charts and emerging trends. If there is a new pop artist that is taking over the charts, their breakout hit song could get snatched up for use in a commercial. The most talked about or viral hits of the moment are always good candidates for licensing deals. Pay attention to music publications and social media chatter to see what songs are making waves.

Consider Song Meaning and Lyrics

The lyrics and themes of potential songs should match the tone and message of a brand campaign. Upbeat, positive lyrics often work for feel-good campaigns. Nostalgic songs match well with reminiscing campaigns. Fun, silly songs work for light-hearted ads. Marketers want songs that thematically fit and reinforce their branding. Lyrical content can make a song ideal or unsuitable for an ad.

Think About Cross-Promotional Opportunities

Brands love licensing opportunities that also act as cross-promotion. If an artist has a new album releasing soon, a licensing deal can also help market the artist and album. This makes songs by artists with upcoming projects good prospects, especially major artists with name recognition. Brands may pursue these mutually beneficial partnerships.

Follow Industry Buzz

Those working in licensing or affiliated industries often have insider intel on upcoming deals. People at music publishers, record labels, or licensing agencies talk, and gossip gets around about deals in the works. Well-connected industry sources can provide tips on which songs are being pitched for certain ad campaigns. This insider buzz could offer advanced info to make licensing bets.

Research Past Campaigns

Look back at past ad campaigns from the brand or agency to guide predictions. Advertisers often form a formula that works and repeat it across campaigns. Coca-Cola, for example, has frequently licensed happy pop hits over the years. If a brand used stripped-down acoustic covers in the past, they may continue that style. Past music choices can indicate future preferences.

Consider Commercial Airdate

The expected airdate for the commercial should influence predictions. A Christmas-themed ad would warrant a holiday song. A summer ad campaign would likely require catchy upbeat summer anthems. If the ad is tied to a specific event or season, the music selection may follow suit.

Follow Legal Troubles and Clearances

Research which artists may have tangled rights issues or legal troubles that could interfere with licensing deals. Any legal disputes around a song could prevent its use, even if it seems like a perfect fit. Songs going through litigation around rights may be too risky for advertisers.

Consult Data Sources

There are also data sources like Adtunes that track music licenses. Subscribing to licensing databases can provide historical data on music use and licensing trends by brands, products, or ad agencies. These data tools offer empirical insights for making informed predictions.

With the right awareness and research, it’s possible to make educated guesses on which songs will land lucrative licensing deals. Following these tips on current trends, brand themes, artist traction, lyrics, industry chatter and past usages can help you make strategic bets on music in commercials.