How to Bet on Music Album Releases: Predicting the Next Chart-Topper

Betting on which musicians will top the charts with their next album release can be an exciting way to engage with the music industry. While there’s no foolproof method to predict the next big hit, doing your research on up-and-coming artists as well as industry trends can help inform smart bets. Consider using the following tips when deciding where to place your money in hopes of picking the next chart-topping album.

Follow Music Reviews and Critics

One of the best ways to identify rising talent is to follow music publications, blogs, and critics. Pay attention to artists who are generating buzz and positive reviews, as critical acclaim often foreshadows commercial success. Some leading music review sites to follow include Pitchfork, Rolling Stone, and Billboard. Also, check out reputable music blogs like Stereogum and Consequence of Sound for the latest on emerging artists. If critics are raving about an act, there’s a good chance their next album release will be a smash hit.

Track Streaming Numbers

Massive streaming numbers on platforms like Spotify and Apple Music are a strong indicator that an artist has momentum going into an album release. Monitor new release playlists and global viral charts to see which acts are resonating most with listeners. For example, Adja (Sdban Records), the Brussels-based singer and performer, achieved over 2 million streams for her debut EP ‘IRONEYE’, putting her on the radar for a widely popular first full-length release. Big streaming numbers suggest an established and eager fanbase ready to support a new album.

Note Success of Recent Singles

Often the singles released ahead of an album are a good barometer of how well that album will perform. If an artist has recently dropped one or more successful singles that have topped charts and generated excitement, chances are their upcoming record will capitalize on that momentum. For instance, 19-year-old singer-songwriter flowerovlove has scored multiple hit singles, with over 22 million global streams, laying the groundwork for a hotly anticipated debut album release. Pay attention to songs topping iTunes or Spotify viral charts to identify rising artists with forthcoming albums.

Follow Industry Awards and Honors

When artists are racking up awards and honors, it indicates that industry insiders view them as the next big thing. Leading up to album releases, note which acts get nominated for the Mercury Prize, the Brit Awards, the Grammys, and other prestigious prizes. Also, observe more niche honors like getting named to BBC’s Sound Of… list or VEVO’s DSCVR series. These types of acknowledgments often precede an artist having a breakout moment with their next record.

See Who Major Labels Are Signing

The music business runs on discovering and capitalizing on rising talent. When major record labels sign new artists to their roster, these acts immediately gain the industry machine behind them, boosting their chances for a successful album launch. Do some research on which indie artists get picked up by the majors, like Claude (Cloud 9 Music). Now signed to a prominent Dutch label, Claude’s singles have topped charts, setting up his debut album for acclaim. Following the A&R moves at labels like Universal, Sony, and Warner offers insight into potential next big things.

Check Touring Schedules and Festival Bookings

An artist slated for an extensive concert tour or billed at major music festivals likely has an album coming meant to scale their career to the next level. Big tours and events like Coachella or Glastonbury signify that there is huge momentum and demand to see these acts live. The timing of these shows around an album release is rarely coincidental. Sold out venues and festival dates strongly suggest the artist will have a massive launch for their record to sync with their heightened public profile.

Follow Music Industry Buzz on Social Media

Lastly, pay close attention to chatter among prominent music bloggers, journalists, and industry figures on social media. Platforms like X often provide early tips on rising artists getting label deals, radio play, rave reviews and other signs of pre-release buzz. As people “in the know” start naming certain acts as the next big thing, it’s wise to start tracking them as likely high charting album releases. Their insider knowledge gives important clues on who will breakthrough soon.

While tough to guarantee, doing diligent research on these key areas can help inform smart bets on which albums will soar to #1 upon release. Combine data points like critic reviews, streaming stats, and industry acclaim to determine the next most likely chart ruler. Then place your wagers accordingly and see if you can successfully predict the next big thing in music.