Betting on the 2025 Academy Awards: Your Ultimate Guide

The Academy Awards, or “Oscars”, are the biggest night in Hollywood. As the most prestigious film awards, the Oscars generate a lot of buzz and speculation leading up to the ceremony. This makes betting on the Oscars a popular pastime for cinephiles and gamblers alike. Here is your ultimate guide to betting on the 2025 Academy Awards.

Understanding the Categories

The first step to betting on the Oscars is understanding the different award categories. The major categories are Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and the Screenplay awards. Other key categories include Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, and the Animated Feature and Documentary awards.

When betting on a category, look at the likely nominees and winners based on precursor awards like the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and guild awards.

For example, at the 2025 Golden Globes, Demi Moore won Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical for her performance in The Substance. This was Moore’s first major acting award. The Substance follows Moore’s character as she takes a mysterious drug meant to transform her into a better version of herself. In her acceptance speech, Moore said the film marked a new chapter in her career.

Other big winners at the Globes included Conclave for Best Drama, Timothée Chalamet for Best Actor Drama in A Complete Unknown, and Zoe Saldaña for Best Supporting Actress in Emilia Pérez. Moore said her win celebrates her “wholeness” after being called a “popcorn actress” earlier in her career.

Films and performers recognized across multiple precursor awards tend to fare well at the Oscars.

Researching the Frontrunners

Once you understand the categories, research the potential nominees and frontrunners. Variety, The Hollywood Reporter and other trade publications provide running predictions on who is likely to be nominated and win. Some frontrunners for 2025 nominations include:

• Best Picture: The Brutalist, Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
• Best Director: Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
• Best Actor: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
• Best Actress: Demi Moore (The Substance), Mikey Madison (Anora)
• Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
• Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked)

These predictions will evolve as more awards are announced, so stay current on results from the major precursor awards. There is a lot left to play for, and surprise nominations might come out of leftfield.

Considering Momentum and Buzz

Betting lines reflect each nominee’s momentum and buzz more than strict quality. While reviews and critic awards matter for prestige, other factors like popularity and media narratives influence betting odds. For example, Demi Moore is a frontrunner for Best Actress based partly on her comeback narrative after The Substance. Similarly, Wicked is predicted for Best Picture recognition due to its massive box office success, not just its quality. Consider how media narratives and public perception shape each contender’s momentum when betting.

Accounting for Historical Trends

Academy voting patterns demonstrate clear historical trends worth noting when betting on the Oscars:

• Best Picture winners tend to also be Best Director nominees. Since 2010, every Best Picture winner has had its director nominated.
• Acting winners often come from Best Picture nominees. For the past decade, the majority of acting winners star in Best Picture candidates.
• Prestige biopicsfrequently earn acting wins and nominations, as do transformative physical performances involving significant weight loss/gain, disabilities, or age prosthetics.
• Below-the-line categories usually go to Best Picture players or other big prestige films. Since 2010, most winners in Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, etc. come from Best Picture or otherwise acclaimed films.

Wagering on Upsets

When betting on the Oscars, don’t be afraid to predict upsets. Oscars voting uses a preferential ballot for Best Picture and ranked choice voting for the other categories. This voting system allows for surprises as consensus choices beat out more divisive films. For example, Moonlight unexpectedly won Best Picture over the favored La La Land. When wagering, especially in notoriously unpredictable categories like Best Picture, consider going against the grain and betting on an upset.

Playing It Safe

If you want to play it safe when betting on the Oscars, stick to the frontrunners with proven momentum from earlier awards shows. While upsets happen, they are still the anomaly. Frontrunners with strong precursors, especially those with corresponding nominations in directing and acting, have the clearest path to Oscar victory. If you bet big on a frontrunner like The Brutalist for Best Picture, you’re sticking with the safest odds based on expert predictions and historical trends.

Tips for Each Major Category

Here are some extra tips for betting on the major Oscar categories:

• Best Picture: This is the most unpredictable category, but statistics show Best Director and Film Editing nominees have the best track record. Consider technical achievements and cast performances as well.
• Best Director: Often goes hand-in-hand with Best Picture. Pay attention to the Directors Guild Awards winner. First-time nominees rarely win.
• Best Actor: Look for transformative performances in biopics or roles requiring significant physical change. Industry veterans tend to beat out newcomers.
• Best Actress: Prestige literary adaptations and real-life portrayals fare well. Established actresses often triumph over fresh faces.
• Best Supporting Actor: Scene-stealing character roles do best. Comic performances used to have an advantage, but recently more dramatic turns have won out.
• Best Supporting Actress: Supporting categories can make stars, so newcomers have good odds here. Scene-stealing is paramount.

Key Takeaways

To recap betting tips:

• Study the award categories and critically evaluate nominees
• Research expert predictions and precursor award results for frontrunners
• Account for buzz, popularity and media narratives that shape momentum
• Note trends like connections between Picture, Director, and Acting
• Consider going against the grain and predicting upsets
• Play it safe by betting on frontrunners with proven momentum

With preparation and savvy, you can bet on the Oscars like a pro. Do your homework, weigh the odds, and you could cash in big on Oscar night!