Award Predictions at Cannes: How to Bet on the Film Festival’s Winners

The Cannes Film Festival is one of the most prestigious film festivals in the world. Held annually in Cannes, France, it brings together the biggest names in the film industry to compete for the coveted Palme d’Or award for best film. For cinephiles and film buffs, predicting who will win the major awards at Cannes is both a fun pastime and, for some, an opportunity to make some money by betting on the outcomes.

This guide will provide tips on how to make educated guesses about who might take home the top prizes at this star-studded festival.

Consider the Jury

The first key to predicting Cannes winners is understanding who is on the jury.

The jury at Cannes is comprised of international film professionals, typically directors, actors, and producers. Their personal tastes and preferences inevitably influence their selections. Looking at the jury members’ backgrounds can offer insight into what kind of films or filmmaking styles they might favor. For example, a jury made up of mostly art house directors may be more inclined to award serious dramas like Armour (2012), while a jury full of movie stars could lean toward more mainstream crowd pleasers like Pulp Fiction (1994).

Researching the specific jurors, their filmographies, and past interviews can provide further clues to their cinematic leanings.

Watch the Trailers and Read the Reviews

Once the official selection has been announced, the next step is diving into the films themselves as much as possible ahead of time. Trailers offer a snapshot of the tone, story, and production values. Reading reviews out of early press screenings, particularly from respected trade publications like Variety and Hollywood Reporter, can reveal which films have generated buzz or disappointment. Taking note of common themes or impressions in the reviews can signal a potential frontrunner.

Follow the Oddsmakers

Those in the business of betting on entertainment outcomes can provide one of the best gauges for predicting winners. European bookmakers like Ladbrokes and others that take bets on Cannes begin setting odds for Palme d’Or and other Cannes awards winners once the competition lineup is set.

Tracking how those odds shift in the lead-up to the festival as reviews roll in is telling. Favorites will see their odds shorten, while disappointing films will see lengthening odds. This gives a sense of momentum from expert oddsmakers.

Trust the Experts

Respected film critics and industry experts also offer award predictions for Cannes contenders. Longtime Cannes jury members and watchers like Peter Bradshaw of The Guardian or Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter issue shortlists of their picks. While they can certainly be wrong, their educated perspectives and instincts from years of covering Cannes are insightful. Taking note of any consensus around one or two frontrunners from experts is wise.

Go with Your Gut

For the casual movie fan just looking to make some fun Cannes predictions, don’t overlook your own hunches. Maybe a trailer really excited you or a director’s past work impressed you. While not the most scientific approach, gut reactions can also count for something. Cannes juries are moved by emotional experiences and your own instincts could align with those of a juror.

Consider Divisive Films

At a festival renowned for celebrating art house films, Cannes juries are sometimes drawn to polarizing, provocative entries. Controversial subject matter or style does not necessarily hurt a film’s chances if it has artistic merit; in fact, it can even help by making it the most talked about film among the jury. Be on the lookout for movies with shock value that could also impress cinephiles. These divisive films can turn into surprise winners.

Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 is one such divisive winner, back in 2004. Viridiana (2004) is another, and it was branded as blasphemous by the Vatican at the time.

Surprising Winners

Some recent films that have been surprising standouts at the Cannes Film Festival include:

• Parasite (2019) – The Korean thriller by Bong Joon-ho was the surprise Palme d’Or winner. It marked the first time a Korean film took the top prize. Its genre-bending story and style defied expectations.
• Shoplifters (2018) – The moving Japanese drama by Hirokazu Kore-eda unexpectedly won the Palme d’Or. As a family drama, it was an unconventional choice over splashier films.
• Blue is the Warmest Color (2013) – The intimate French lesbian romance divided critics on its graphic sexuality. But its raw emotion resonated with jurors who awarded it the Palme d’Or.

Predicting the winners at Cannes requires paying close attention to jury tastes, early critical reactions, oddsmaker forecasts, expert picks, and your own movie passions. Using these strategies can help turn you into an informed awards prognosticator for the most prestigious film festival in the world and maybe lead you to make some savvy Cannes bets.

Above all, following the lead up to Cannes winners is an exciting way to discover new cinematic voices and celebrate extraordinary filmmaking.