How to Bet on Netflix’s 2025 Global Hit: Which Country Will Lead?

Netflix has transformed the global entertainment landscape, shifting from a US-centric DVD rental service to a streaming behemoth with a presence in over 190 countries. The company’s success hinges not only on attracting subscribers but also on creating content that resonates globally. Predicting Netflix’s next big hit is a high-stakes game, and for 2025, the smart money is increasingly looking beyond Hollywood.

The Shift to International Content

For years, Netflix’s primary focus was on English-language content, primarily produced in the United States. However, the company has dramatically shifted its strategy. More than half of Netflix’s content spending is now outside of North America. In 2024, over 50% of Netflix’s billion dollar film and TV budget was directed towards internationally sourced content, and this trend is expected to continue, with an $18 billion investment planned for 2025. This strategic pivot acknowledges that 70% of Netflix subscribers are located outside North America.

The rationale is clear: to foster organic subscriber growth and minimize churn, Netflix needs to produce and license local content that appeals to specific cultural preferences. This means investing heavily in non-English language productions and partnering with local creators.

The Leading Contenders

Several countries stand out as potential sources for Netflix’s next global sensation:

• South Korea:South Korea has already proven its ability to produce global hits. Squid Game, a 2021 release, remains Netflix’s most-watched series of all time. Building on this success, Netflix is investing heavily in the country, with US$2.5 billion (S$3.3 billion) earmarked over the next four years for Korean TV series, movies, and unscripted shows. This is double the amount invested since 2016. Other South Korean productions, such as The Glory and Physical: 100, have also achieved international acclaim.
• Spain:Spain has emerged as a significant production hub for Netflix, benefiting from local tax incentives and a wealth of creative talent. Spanish-language shows like Money Heist (La Casa de Papel) and Elite have garnered massive global audiences. Netflix has strategically established production facilities in Spain, indicating a long-term commitment to the region.
• India:India represents a massive potential market for Netflix, with a growing number of smartphone users and increasing broadband penetration. The Indian video-on-demand market is projected to reach $5 billion by 2023. Netflix is investing in Indian-language content, including Hindi, Tamil, and Telugu productions, to tap into this vast audience.
• United Kingdom:The UK is a major contributor to Netflix’s content library, with a significant amount of English language content being produced there.
• Japan:Along with South Korea, Japan stands out as a top international market for Netflix, with investments in content that performs well locally and globally.

Why These Countries?

These countries share several key characteristics that make them attractive for Netflix’s content investment:

• Strong Local Talent:Each country boasts a vibrant creative industry with experienced writers, directors, actors, and production crews.
• Cost-Effectiveness:Producing content in these countries is often more cost-effective than in the United States, allowing Netflix to stretch its budget further.
• Cultural Exportability:The stories and themes explored in these countries often have universal appeal, transcending cultural boundaries and resonating with audiences worldwide.
• Government Support:Many of these countries offer tax incentives and other forms of government support to attract foreign investment in their film and television industries.

The “Squid Game” Effect

The phenomenal success of Squid Game demonstrated the potential for non-English language content to become global blockbusters. The show’s relatively modest production cost (reportedly $21 million) compared to the budgets of many US-produced series highlights the financial advantages of international productions. The “Squid Game” effect has encouraged Netflix to take more risks on international content, confident that a breakout hit can emerge from anywhere.

Beyond the Top Contenders

While South Korea, Spain, the UK, Japan, and India are leading the charge, Netflix is also investing in other regions. Latin America is a growing market, with content in languages such as Spanish and Portuguese. Netflix is diversifying its content to cater to a global audience. European countries, particularly the “big five” (UK, Spain, France, Germany, Italy), attract substantial investment.

Netflix’s 2025 Strategy: Diversity and Innovation

Netflix’s content strategy for 2025 is built on diversity and innovation. The company is investing in a wide range of genres, including sci-fi, documentaries, K-dramas, anime, and even live sports. This approach ensures that Netflix can cater to a broad spectrum of viewer preferences, attracting and retaining subscribers worldwide.

Netflix is also exploring new revenue streams, such as advertising. The company expects to double its advertising revenue in 2025, supported by the launch of a first-party advertising technology stack.

Predicting the Unpredictable

While data and trends can guide predictions, the entertainment industry is inherently unpredictable. A show’s success depends on a complex interplay of factors, including writing quality, acting performances, cultural relevance, and marketing. Even with Netflix’s vast resources and data-driven approach, there’s always an element of chance.

In the end, predicting Netflix’s next global hit is part art, part science. By combining data analysis with an understanding of cultural trends and Netflix’s evolving strategy, you can make informed choices and increase your chances of being ahead of the curve. The smart money is on international content, and the race for the next Squid Game is definitely on.