How to Bet on Streaming Series Renewals: Which Shows Will Get a Second Season?

With the rise of streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime, there are more original series being produced than ever before. However, the rapid pace of new show creation has led to a high cancellation rate after just one season.

Popular Shows That Bit the Dust after One Season

Some of the most beloved and critically acclaimed TV shows have been canceled after just a single season. For example, Joss Whedon’s space western Firefly premiered in 2002 to great reviews but low ratings. Despite a passionate fan campaign, Fox canceled it after 11 episodes aired. The quirky high school drama Freaks and Geeks (1999), with early roles for James Franco and Seth Rogen, also earned quick cancellation after just 18 episodes.

More recently, Netflix has made a habit of axing shows after one season regardless of quality. The dark British teen mystery The Order (2019) and the YA fantasy series The Society (2019) both amassed enthusiastic fans during their short runs. Even shows that seem like no-brainer hits get canceled fast on Netflix. The fantasy adventure series Locke & Key (2020), based on a popular comic, only got one season before Netflix declined to renew it.

Other one-season wonders include Constantine (2014-15), a DC comics adaptation with a cult following, and the well-reviewed alien invasion show Invasion (2005-06). While disappointing for fans, the quick cancellation of shows like these illustrates the cold, calculated nature of the modern TV industry.

How can viewers make informed bets on which new streaming shows will be renewed? Here are some tips.

Look at Viewership and Buzz

The most straightforward indicator of renewal chances is viewership. Streaming services closely guard their actual viewership data, but you can get a sense of which shows are popular based on online buzz and media coverage. A show like “Stranger Things” generates massive interest across social media, entertainment news, and pop culture commentary. Positive reviews also signal a wider audience. A show with little online discussion or hype is less likely to have the viewership numbers needed for renewal.

Study the Network’s Past Behavior

Pay attention to the renewal patterns of specific streaming platforms. Netflix, for example, has become notorious for swift cancellations if a series doesn’t immediately take off. HBO and Hulu, on the other hand, tend to give shows more time to build an audience. If a new show is on Netflix, strong initial viewership may be necessary for renewal. On another network, decent numbers could be enough for another season. Know the behavior of the network.

Follow the Money

TV is a business, and financial factors come first when deciding renewals. Big-budget shows with expensive talent require high viewership to justify renewal. A smaller show with lesser-known actors can survive on lower, but consistent, numbers. Sci-fi and fantasy shows demand higher budgets for CGI and elaborate sets. Comedies can be made fairly cheaply. Consider a show’s budget when guessing its renewal chances.

Look for Untapped Potential

Sometimes shows with mediocre first season ratings get renewed because the network sees untapped potential in the concept or talent. “Parks and Recreation” had low initial viewership but got renewed based on Amy Poehler’s star power. Similarly, conceptually inventive shows like “Russian Doll” may get another chance to find an audience. The network’s faith in a show’s possibilities can outweigh early numbers.

Know the Creator’s Track Record

Shows helmed by big-name producers known for hits have a better shot at renewal, even with a shaky first season. Netflix gave “The Witcher” a season two despite uneven reviews because of showrunner Lauren Schmidt Hissrich’s strong track record. Meanwhile, shows from first-time creators have less leeway. Bet on shows with experienced, successful showrunners at the helm.

Consider Critical Acclaim

While viewership and profitability drive most renewal decisions, critical praise can also help a marginal show’s chances. Acclaimed shows with passionate fan bases and awards potential sometimes get renewed despite low numbers. Critical buzz provides promotion and prestige for networks. So, a struggling show with strong reviews has better renewal odds than an equally low-rated show that the critics hate.

Stay Realistic

No matter how much you may love an underwhelming new show, be realistic about its chances. Factors like ratings, budget, talent contracts, corporate politics and more determine cancellations. Renewal is never guaranteed. Don’t get too attached to every new series you enjoy – managing expectations helps.

Betting on renewals is an inexact science. Viewership and finances are key factors driving networks’ decisions but are hard for outsiders to gauge. Still, by studying patterns and using the right criteria, you can make informed predictions on which new streaming shows will return for a second season.