How to Bet on Documentary TV Series: Critical Acclaim Predictions

With the rise of streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime, documentary series have seen a huge surge in popularity in recent years. From true crime to nature docs, these series allow viewers to dive deep into topics and stories over multiple episodes.

The documentary genre continues to thrive in 2024 with several critically acclaimed documentaries already premiering this year. Standouts include Road Diary, an intimate look at Bruce Springsteen’s recent world tour; The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, which explores the secret online life of a young man with muscular dystrophy; America’s Sweethearts, a behind-the-scenes docuseries on the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders from Last Chance U director Greg Whiteley; and Will & Harper, which follows comedian Will Ferrell road-tripping with his transgender best friend.

This increase in documentary series has also led to more predictions and betting around which ones will receive critical acclaim through award nominations and wins. Here are some tips on factors to consider when betting on which upcoming documentary series will earn high praise.

Predict Award Category Nominations

One of the first steps is researching which major awards typically recognize documentaries and if any new documentary-focused awards have been added by major organizations. Key awards to check for documentary categories include the Emmys, Critics’ Choice Documentary Awards, and Cinema Eye Honors. While the Oscars do not have a specific documentary series category, they have honored standout docs in other areas like Best Documentary Feature. Review nominations and winners in recent years to get a sense of the types of docu-series that resonate most with awards voters.

Creative Talent Involved

Take note of who is behind the documentary series, including directors, producers, and writers. Well-known doc filmmakers like Alex Gibney, Liz Garbus, and Stanley Nelson who have received acclaim for past projects may be strong contenders again. High profile producers or production companies with a proven awards track record can also indicate a strong contender. The style and reputation of those creatives can give insight into the potential quality of the finished series.

Network or Platform It is Premiering On

Pay attention to which networks or streaming platforms will debut new documentary series. HBO has long been dominant at the Emmys for their lauded doc programming. Netflix has also become a top destination for docuseries, receiving nominations and wins for programs like Wild Wild Country and Making a Murderer. A docuseries backed by a network or service already recognized for quality non-fiction programming has better chances of gaining awards attention.

Subject Matter & Timing

The theme or topic of a documentary series can impact buzz and acclaim, especially if it ties into current events or public interests. Timely subject matter that taps into major headlines, like the Menendez Brothers documentary, exposes injustices, or provides unique access to polarizing issues tend to resonate more with reviewers and voters. Even if the filmmaking is not groundbreaking, culturally relevant topics can give a series a boost during awards season.

Early Reviews from Critics & Journalists

As award season ramps up in the fall, keep an eye out for early reviews of docuseries from top TV and film critics. Series generating strong initial reviews for compelling storytelling, artistry, and depth of research are more likely to be remembered when nomination time comes. Pay particular attention to reviews from critics whose tastes often align with awards voters and those who cover multiple series versus highlighting just one.

Social Media Buzz & Viewer Response

Fan response can also foreshadow acclaim. Track social media buzz for new docuseries, noting viral posts or moments signaling a series connecting widely with viewers. Strong user reviews and ratings on sites like IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes can represent positive word-of-mouth. While fan hype doesn’t always translate to awards, breakout popularity raises awareness and shows broad appeal.

Awards Track Record of Subjects

If a docuseries spotlights key individuals, evaluate if those subjects have history receiving industry awards and praise which could extend to the project. For example, a documentary centered on a famous actor or director who has won multiple Oscars or Emmys already has a narrative that connects to past awards success. The level of access to and cooperation from the featured subject can also make a difference in quality.

Betting Odds & Expert Predictions

Of course, research betting odds and expert predictions to identify early frontrunners for docuseries prize contenders. Reputable awards tracking sites provide odds and forecasts from editors, insiders, and enthusiasts which can signal upcoming buzz. Don’t rely solely on odds but use them along with your own analysis to find value bets on underdogs as well as likely favorites.

By digging into these factors around networks, creatives, subjects, reviews, and more, you can make informed predictions about which upcoming documentary series may see their critical acclaim translate into award show recognition. Getting in early with bets boosts potential winnings. So, do your homework on new docuseries that seem primed for nominations and wins.