New Artist Breakthroughs: Who Will Win Awards? A Betting Guide

The new artist categories at major awards shows are always exciting, offering a glimpse into the future stars of the music industry. While veterans compete for top prizes, newcomers battle it out for the coveted best new artist trophy. This year brings fierce competition, with several contenders releasing hit albums and dominating the charts. Let’s break down the new artists to watch in multiple genres and predict who could win big.

Chappell Roan Leads the Pop Newcomers

Pop singer Chappell Roan has quickly become a critical darling, earning comparisons to artists like Lorde and Lana Del Rey. Her debut album, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, is a contender for Album of the Year at the Grammys with its poetic lyrics and lush instrumentals. It became her first number one album in the US.

The LP has already spawned two top ten hits on the Billboard Hot 100: the sultry “Good Luck Babe” and the anthemic “Hot to Go.” Roan’s unique tone and vulnerable songwriting make her a standout. Given her crossover success at pop radio, streaming, and music videos, Roan is currently the front-runner for Best New Artist.

Her MTV VMA win for Push Artist of the Year also bodes well. Roan could pull off a Billie Eilish-style sweep, taking home multiple top prizes. Don’t be surprised to see her win Best Pop Vocal Album too. The critical acclaim for her debut gives her an edge.

Watch Out for Sabrina Carpenter

Pop singer-songwriter Sabrina Carpenter has been steadily rising, transitioning from a teen star into a mainstream pop force. She has released numerous hit singles over the past two years like “Nonsense”, “Because I Liked a Boy”, and this year’s upbeat smash “Taste.”

Carpenter may face eligibility issues for Best New Artist as she’s been releasing music for years. But her songs have never been bigger. If she qualifies, watch out. Carpenter’s sixth studio album Emails I Can’t Send reached number three and spawned multiple top 40 entries.

The production is slick and radio-friendly while highlighting her powerhouse vocals. Don’t underestimate her industry support either. As long as the screening committee says yes, Carpenter could upset Roan. Her Spotify numbers are astronomical.

Country Contenders: Shaboozey and Megan Moroney

On the country side, all eyes are on hybrid star Shaboozey and singer-songwriter Megan Moroney. They lead a relatively small field of country newcomers with breakout years.

Shaboozey’s unique blend of country, hip-hop, and pop has made him a crossover sensation. His feel-good singalong “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” spent a record-breaking thirteen weeks at number one on the country charts. It remains in the top ten nearly a year after its release. He even earned two features on Beyoncé’s country album Cowboy Carter.

Combining genuine country songwriting with playful rap delivery has expanded Shaboozey’s audience. His third LP Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going topped the country album charts as well. With critical acclaim and commercial success, he is the country front-runner.

Megan Moroney’s traditionalist approach has also won over critics and fans. Her number one country debut Lucky earned praise for her vivid storytelling and sweet vocal tone. Lead single “Tennessee Orange” topped the charts while follow-up “I’m Not Pretty” reached number two.

Her vulnerable sophomore record Am I Okay? debuted at number three country and number seven pop, indicating her crossover ability. Moroney has already won New Artist awards from the ACMs and CMTs. She feels like the genre’s next big star.

Rock & Pop Rock: Benson Boone and Teddy Swims

On the rock side, singer-songwriters Benson Boone and Teddy Swims lead the pack of new artists making waves. Boone exploded onto the scene this year with the quintessential pop rock anthem “Beautiful Things.” It peaked at number three on the Hot 100 and ruled radio playlists all summer.

Boone’s boyish charm and falsetto vocals earned him millions of TikTok and social media followers. Though he leans into pop production, the lyrical intimacy of songs like “Slow It Down” and “Pretty Slowly” showcase his potential as an album artist.

Fireworks & Rollerblades debuted in the top 20, a rare feat for a new rock act. Boone feels like the one who could unite genres.

Meanwhile, Teddy Swims went viral with 2022’s smash “Lose Control.” The soulful track spent fourteen weeks at number one, tying chart records. His powerful voice and retro sound attract wide audiences. Swims’ debut LP I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy reached number four thanks to the success of “Lose Control” and top 40 single “The Door.”

His throwback vibe appeals to older voters while his streaming numbers satisfy younger ones. With two rock/pop rock stars coming out this year in different lanes, the genre has a strong chance to win.

The Rap Arena: Sexxx Red vs. Raye

On the rap and R&B side, newcomers face hurdles. British singer-songwriter RAYE had a record-breaking year across the pond, hinting at crossover potential. But rap newcomers lack breakout hits so far.

Provocative rapper Sexxx Red has the most momentum. Her rowdy tracks “Get It Sexxx” and “Pound Town” drew attention for their explicit lyrics, earning both viral fame and radio bans. Collabs with Drake like “U My Everything” and “Rich Baby Daddy” dominated streaming.

But a disastrous live BET Awards performance may hurt her chances with Grammy voters. Still, her streaming totals are undeniable. With rap peers underwhelming, Sexxx Red could squeeze out a win.

The Indie/Alternative Field

While major label stars fight for pop, rock, and rap, the indie and alternative categories offer opportunities for upsets. Critical darlings like Muna, Alex G, Wet Leg, and Genesis Owusu each have claims.

Muna’s upbeat LP Muna gained universal acclaim, led by infectious singles “What I Want” and “Kind of Girl.” Alex G’s singer-songwriter album God Save the Animals topped year-end lists.

Meanwhile, Genesis Owusu’s experimental hip-hop/R&B debut Smiling With No Teeth blew up internationally. And Wet Leg’s scuzzy viral hit “Chaise Longue” made them festival headliners.

In such a fractured field, small voting blocs could propel an underdog to victory. Don’t assume the big names have indie/alternative locked down.

The Fierce Competition Makes Betting Difficult

Predicting the winners in stacked new artist fields is always a challenge. With so many genres represented and both critical darlings and commercial juggernauts in contention, voters face tough choices.

Pop singer Chappell Roan looks like the one to beat based on chart success, acclaim, and industry buzz. Her Grammy nominations could rival Billie Eilish and Lizzo. But veterans like Sabrina Carpenter and Teddy Swims have big streaming numbers and radio play.

Don’t count out country/rap phenom Shaboozey either. Crossover potential matters more than ever. The unpredictability is what makes awards night so exciting. Anyone could take home the trophy in an upset.

There are no sure bets in the new artist categories. But observers can make educated guesses based on factors like album reviews, chart positions, previous awards show success, and social media buzz. Track which nominees get the most nominations in the Big Four categories too.

Ultimately, vote splitting could allow a dark horse to sneak through. That’s the beauty of the Grammys—just when you think you know who will win, they’ll surprise you. Keep watching the charts and stay tuned for nominations. This new artist race will go down to the wire.