How to Bet on New TV Streaming Releases: Binge-Worthy or Bust?

With the rise of streaming services like Netflix, Disney+, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, and more, there are constantly new TV shows being released that aim to be the next big binge-worthy hit. But with so many options, how do you know which new releases are worth your time? Here are some tips on how to bet on which new streaming TV shows will be binge-worthy hits or total busts.

Check Out the Talent Behind the Show

One of the best indicators of whether a new streaming show will be high-quality and binge-worthy is the talent attached both in front of and behind the camera. Big name actors and producers can signal a higher budget production. Acclaimed writers and directors are also usually a good sign that care and creativity have gone into crafting the series.

For example, Netflix’s hit Regency era drama Bridgerton was originally helmed by showrunner Chris Van Dusen, who previously worked on acclaimed shows like The Good Wife and Scandal. It also starred recognizable actors like Phoebe Dynevor and Rege-Jean Page. The pedigrees involved likely helped draw in viewers.

Similarly, a new show with mostly unknown talent doesn’t mean it can’t also end up being great, but it’s likely more of a gamble versus a series with proven successes driving the creative forces.

Read Early Reviews

Once new shows are released, reviews from professional critics and early viewers can give a good sense of their quality and watchability. Sites like Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic aggregate reviews and provide Tomatometer or weighted average review scores.

Generally, the higher the score a new streaming show gets early on, the better its chances of being considered binge-worthy. A score below 60% often signals a show may not satisfy audiences and end up being a bust. Scores above 80% tend to indicate a strong reception and likelihood the show will gain word of mouth traction.

That said, reviews aren’t everything. Sometimes shows grow in quality after rocky starts. But in general, early reviews do provide useful guidance on what new releases warrant your streaming time investment.

Research the Source Material (If Any)

For new shows that are adaptations of existing source material like books, comics, podcasts, etc., researching the original work can provide clues into its potential.

For instance, a new show based on a bestselling, acclaimed novel like Rivals by Jilly Cooper is more likely to be binge-worthy versus a previously unknown podcaster’s first work being adapted. The existing fanbase and proven story of the source material helps reduce the risk of the show being a total bust.

The showrunner and cast are also key. A stellar team can sometimes even make questionable source material into a binge-worthy adaptation. But at minimum, looking at the original work’s reputation gives you an idea of the ceiling for what the show can achieve.

Consider the Streaming Service

The streaming service releasing a new show can be indicative of its potential quality too. Platforms like HBO Max and Netflix that focus on prestige releases tend to vet projects more thoroughly and invest higher budgets. Their shows often get more marketing support as well.

Compared to newer, smaller streamers which are still building their brands and viewer base, releases on major services tend to be safer bets for being binge-worthy hits. Of course, smaller services can still produce gems, but bigger streamers provide a degree of trust.

Evaluate Early Buzz and Memes

In today’s social media saturated world, looking at the early buzz and memes a new show generates can indicate if it will take off virally. Big traction on X, TikTok, YouTube, etc. signals a widely engaged potential audience. A lack of early social buzz may foreshadow a release fading into obscurity.

Viral memes are especially telling. Shows like Wednesday on Netflix that inspire lots of jokes and content creation have clearly resonated, while other shows that debut quietly without making many online cultural ripples may not have stickiness.

Following relevant hashtags, critics, and fan accounts for early buzz analysis can be invaluable to predicting the next big streaming hit.

Trust Your Gut Instinct

No amount of research can replace your own gut instinct on whether a new streaming show seems up your alley after watching the trailer and reading the premise.

Despite great talent or source material attached, the plot or genre may simply not appeal to your tastes. And a completely unfamiliar new show could pique your interest and seem full of potential.

So, while considering all the metrics, don’t forget to listen to your intuition. It may override any data points and guide you toward unexpected hidden gem shows while helping you avoid seemingly “sure things” that you know deep down don’t appeal to you personally.

Betting on whether a new streaming TV show will stick the landing or flop is no easy task. Using the talent, reviews, source material, service, social buzz, and your own instincts as guides can all help separate the binge-worthy wheat from the bust chaff. But a key is also leaving room for those unforeseeable surprises that defy all odds and become classics.