Betting on Holiday Specials: How to Tell if They’ll Become Classics

The holiday season is upon us, and you know what that means – tons of cheesy, over-the-top holiday specials like National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation and Miracle on 34^th Street! Some of these holiday episodes become beloved classics, aired year after year, while others fade into obscurity. If you’re looking to place some bets on which holiday specials will stand the test of time, like South park’s Mr. Hankey’s Christmas Classics and The Golden Girls, Have Yourself a Very Little Christmas, here are some tips on what makes a holiday episode become a classic.

Nostalgia Factor

One of the biggest predictors of whether a holiday special will have staying power is the nostalgia factor. If the TV show itself is considered a classic, nostalgic program, then holiday-themed episodes are likely to also evoke that nostalgic feeling for viewers in the future. Examples would be holiday episodes from classic sitcoms like The Brady Bunch, Full House, or The Cosby Show. These shows remind people of beloved memories from childhood holidays, so their holiday specials continue being welcomed parts of the seasonal rotation.

Unique Premise

Holiday specials with especially unique, outside-the-box premises, tend to be remembered and beloved by fans. For example, The X-Files episode How the Ghosts Stole Christmas features Mulder and Scully investigating a haunted house on Christmas Eve. The show put a creative spin on the typical holiday special, which helped cement it as a classic. When looking to bet on holiday specials, look for ones with imaginative storylines beyond just a Christmas tree lighting or gift exchange storyline.

Big Guest Stars

Having exciting guest stars appear on a holiday episode can give it broader appeal and help it gain classic status. An example is the Glee Christmas episode featuring Academy Award winner Gwyneth Paltrow as a substitute teacher. Her star power gave the special extra buzz and memorability. See if any holiday specials will feature A-list cameos or roles when deciding if they have potential for ongoing popularity.

Heartwarming Moments

Holiday episodes that really go for the heartwarming, emotional moments tend to resound with viewers and have an impact that makes them beloved classics. The Will & Grace episode where Jack learns the identity of his biological father is one holiday special filled with sentimental scenes that became an instant fan-favorite. Viewers are suckers for that Christmas feels, so look for specials aiming right for the heartstrings.

Ratings & Buzz

Don’t ignore old-fashioned metrics like ratings and online buzz when deciding if a holiday special can gain a foothold as a new classic. Big ratings when the episode premieres and lots of positive reviews and social media chatter are good signs that it will have an audience wanting to rewatch it in holiday seasons to come. A lukewarm response makes it less likely to gain that re-watch every year status.

Musical Performances

Holiday episodes that feature musical performances from the cast or special guests have extra entertainment value that gives them staying power. The Community stop-motion Christmas special became an instant classic partly thanks to the cast’s creative takes on holiday songs. So, when stars like the cast of Glee or other musical shows do holiday episodes filled with performances, consider betting on those becoming new traditions.

Recent Holiday Specials that Caused a Buzz

Here are some examples of recent holiday specials that have quickly gained popularity:

• Hawkeye (2021) – The Marvel Disney+ series starring Jeremy Renner had a holiday-themed episode where Hawkeye has to make it home for Christmas. It featured fun action sequences and connected to the broader MCU storyline.
• Schmigadoon! (2021)– The Apple TV+ musical comedy series did a holiday episode that leaned into nostalgic classic musical numbers. The special episode was a ratings hit.
• The Great British Baking Show Holidays (2020-) – This popular baking competition has started doing holiday editions every year, featuring former contestants competing in festive challenges. Fans have embraced it.
• Euphoria (2019) – The HBO teen drama thrilled fans with a holiday-themed bridge episode between seasons 1 and 2. It focused on Rue’s relapse and built hype.
• Book of Boba Fett (2021) – This Star Wars Disney+ series premiered right before the holidays, capturing that anticipation and giving fans a new tradition.
• Emily in Paris Holiday Special (2022) – This Netflix rom-com’s holiday special featuring Emily back in Chicago was a big hit for the streamer.
• Survivor Holiday Special (2021) – Featuring new footage and updates, this special for the reality competition’s huge fanbase garnered buzz.

The combination of major streaming and network shows doing holiday specials is creating new appointment viewing traditions for audiences.

When to Make Your Bets

The best time to place bets on whether new holiday specials will become instant classics is early – after the full lineup of specials is announced but before any air. This allows you to analyze factors like premise, guest stars, and potential for viral moments without ratings or reviews swaying decisions. Early bets also typically have better odds than reactive bets after holiday specials air and receive buzz.

What to Bet On

Focus bets on special holiday episodes of shows with enthusiastic fanbases, especially geeky cult followings. Their fans will be most likely to immediately embrace a new holiday tradition. Examples for this year could be upcoming specials from shows like Yellowstone, The White Lotus, or Euphoria – shows with devoted fans who will decide instantly if a special has classic written all over it.

When to Cash Out

Unlike bets on things like sports events, bets on whether a holiday special becomes a classic are best cashed out a few holiday seasons after the episodes first air. This allows time to see if it gets re-aired year after year and picks up steam as new generations discover it. A special that flops after 3-4 years isn’t going to suddenly become a classic later. But ones gaining more viewers and buzz annually are clearly settling in as certified new classics.

So, there you have it – factors to consider when betting on holiday TV specials and how to use nostalgia, creative premises, and more to tell if they have what it takes to become beloved new traditions. Let the holiday binge-watching begin!