Betting on Nobel Prize Predictions for Literature and Peace

As the announcement for the 2024 Nobel Prizes approaches, speculation is heating up on who will take home the prestigious honors in Literature and Peace. The secretive Nobel Committee in Sweden never provides any clues, but examining recent trends and literary criticism can offer some insight into potential winners. Here are some of the top contenders and dark horses to watch for the 2024 Nobels.

Top Contenders for the Nobel Prize in Literature

These authors are considered the leading favorites and top contenders most likely to win the Nobel Prize in Literature this year based on odds, previous nominations, and literary merit.

Can Xue

Chinese author Can Xue has been on the Nobel shortlist for years, regarded as a favorite to win the prize for her avant-garde fiction writing. She came close in 2023 when the Nobel went unexpectedly to Norwegian playwright Jon Fosse. Can Xue has racked up awards and acclaim for her surreal, dreamlike novels exploring universal themes through a blend of Western and Chinese influences.

Hits like The Last Lover and Frontier showcased her unconventional narrative style and cemented her status as one of China’s most influential contemporary writers. She continues to be lauded for advancing experimental literature and pushing boundaries with her unique voice. After just missing out in 2023, Can Xue seems poised to finally take home the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2024.

Gerald Murnane

At 85 years old, Australian author Gerald Murnane has been a critical darling since the 1970s for his innovative stream-of-consciousness style. Lauded as Australia’s greatest living writer, Murnane came to prominence with acclaimed books like Tamarisk Row and The Plains. He developed a cult-like following for his introspective fictions exploring inner worlds through richly imagined landscapes.

Although he took a hiatus from fiction writing, Murnane roared back in 2009 with Barley Patch to great acclaim. His 2018 Prime Minister’s Literary Award cemented his esteemed status in Australia. Many argue he is long overdue for the Nobel. 2024 could be Murnane’s year to finally get his Nobel Prize for a lifetime of groundbreaking fiction writing.

Dark Horses to Watch for the Nobel in Literature

These authors are considered long-shot possibilities who could potentially surprise everyone and take home the Nobel Prize in Literature as less-talked-about dark horse candidates.

László Krasznahorkai

Hungarian author László Krasznahorkai is a perennial dark horse for the Nobel Prize in Literature. Lauded as an “apocalyptic” writer, his foreboding novels and stories offer much more beyond post-apocalyptic worlds. Works like Satantango and Baron Wenckheim’s Homecoming showcase his versatility across fiction, essays, and screenplays. His labyrinthine sentences and gloomy atmospheres have earned him widespread acclaim.

Winning the 2015 Man Booker International Prize raised Krasznahorkai’s international profile. With Hungarians underrepresented among Nobel Laureates, Krasznahorkai could be the Hungarian writer to finally bring home the prize. The 70-year-old continues to be among the most buzzed-about European writers as a potential first-time Nobel winner.

Jamaica Kincaid

Caribbean writer Jamaica Kincaid has been floated as a perennial contender for her powerful takes on colonialism, racism, and injustice. The Antiguan-American author found fame through her uncompromising, semi-autobiographical writings, garnering praise for bringing seldom-heard voices to the forefront.

Her unflinching essays on themes like sexuality, death, and gardening established her as one of the most unique voices of her generation. Kincaid rose to prominence in the 1980s and has racked up lifetime achievement awards and honors. Now 74, she remains one of the most respected Caribbean writers who is overdue for Nobel recognition. 2024 could finally be her year.

Predicting the Nobel Peace Prize

With the Literature Nobel hard to forecast, the Peace Prize is equally unpredictable. But examining global events and pledged nominations can hint at potential Peace Prize winners. Here are some of the frontrunners and longshots that may be on the Nobel Committee’s radar.

Frontrunners for the Nobel Peace Prize

These individuals and groups are considered the likely favorites and frontrunners to watch who have the best chance of winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year.

Alexei Navalny

The late Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny, who passed away under disputed circumstances in a Russian prison earlier this year, has emerged as the new odds-on favorite to win the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize. Navalny, who died at age 47 while imprisoned for his outspoken criticism of Putin’s regime, saw his odds of posthumously winning the Peace Prize surge following his sudden death in February. Once a longshot, betting sites now give Navalny a greater chance of being awarded the Peace Prize later this year in recognition of his fight for democracy and against authoritarianism in Russia, even at the cost of his own life. Honoring the now-deceased Navalny would send a powerful message and potentially put pressure on Russia over his contested death.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has earned widespread praise for his resolute wartime leadership. His stirring speeches and defiance of Russia have made him a global symbol of resistance and democracy. Awarding the outspoken president would recognize Ukraine’s fight while sending a message of solidarity.

Zelenskyy is a strong favorite for the 2024 Peace Prize. With the war still center stage, he seems poised to take up the mantle of Ukrainian Nobel winners before him.

Longshot Contender for the Nobel Peace Prize

This outside-the-box candidate is seen as a potential dark horse longshot who could defy expectations and win the Nobel Peace Prize despite lower odds.

Greta Thunberg

Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg has been floated as a potential youngest-ever Peace Prize winner since launching her “Fridays for Future” movement in 2018. Still only 21 years old, Thunberg’s activism has inspired a global youth environmental movement.

With climate change a pressing issue, the Nobel Committee could recognize Thunberg’s movement for raising awareness. Critics argue she is still too young for the prize. But with climate matters urgent, Norway’s Nobel Committee may be inclined to reward her activism with the Peace Prize, making her the youngest Nobel Laureate in history.

The field for the 2024 Nobels remains wide open, but these contenders give a sense of potential winners to watch. With the prizes notoriously hard to predict, the only certainty is recipients who embody the values of advancing literature and promoting peace. All will be revealed when the Nobel Committee makes its announcement in October 2024.